What Do You Mean - Marketers Can't Tell The Future?

Yesterday, Ad Age criticized Forrester Research, among others, for inaccurate predictions of product penetration into the US market, calling them "wrong as often as right". Apparently, Ad Age isn't aware of the fickleness of the American public, or the nature of prediction in an unpredictable market.

Can one really expect anyone to be spot on when giving an educated guess on the usage of emerging technologies? High-tech items, such as the DVRs that Forrester was criticized for inaccurately predicting usage of, are potentially a fast mover in the arena of diffusion. They shouldn't be considered a failure for predicting penetration within 10%.

Prices of components to make DVRs, the need for those components in other devices, and corporate greed are just some of the factors that influence pricing on these units. And unit price (along with those annoying subscription fees) is one small piece of the pie in convincing grandma that she needs a PVR. Therefore, to be accurate, Forrester would have had to predict each of these factors, along with gas prices - because they factor into disposable income - and business plans of multiple companies in the supply and distribution chain. Yet they still wouldn't have a full view which could enable them to make a guaranteed accurate prediction.

Does it seem impossible yet? And I haven't even scratched the surface.

People think it silly when a person gets mad at the weatherman for inaccurately predicting the weather. However, that weatherman (or rather his team of meteorologists behind the scenes) have a finite amount of factors which can be quantitatively measured to come to a scientific conclusion. Marketers don't always have that luxury.

Since it isn't possible to quantify all of the factors that can hinder a device from catching on, when in comparison to trying to tell the weather, a 50/50 prediction accuracy is not half bad (50/50 drawn from Ad Age's wrong as often as right description).

Telling the future isn't as easy as it is made to look in the movies. It is also a lot easier to point fingers than to give constructive criticism - Ad Age did the former in this case. And calling the predictions lies, now that is a bit harsh.